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SPX Analysis & Videos »
SPX: Bull or Bear?
Accumulation Apparent
SPX
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-2.60%
in
15 days
(closed on 09/08/08)
I have faced some very real personal difficulties over the past week. These have somewhat hobbled my ability to manage the index and blog as well as I would like. Still, even with these problems, I am managing to handily beat the S&P500 since the index's inception.
Over the coming months I will undoubtedly face even more obstacles. My goal with the Glam 5 is to widely disseminate truths I have learned in my ten years of stock trading, and beat the S&P and NAZ . I feel my biggest advantage is the ability to move to cash in a flash, if the general market suddenly heads south.
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The Current Bear Market: Death By a Thousand Cuts
SPX
+14.55%
in
523 days
7/2 - "The general stock market behavior recently has been painful, to say the least. Now with DJIA broke below March low, any hope of a quick ending on the current bear market diminishes...January and March lows will not hold for the current on-going bear market, and we should expect a 2nd leg down leading the S&P toward the $1,100 level."
"Usually, strong rallies happen during a bear market, partially due to short squeeze but more due to false hope that the bear market will end soon and greed will take over, as investors try to pick a "bottom". This kind of bottom picking rarely works, e...
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SPX
SPX
-19.76%
in
594 days
Retest of 50 EMA looks imminent. Our only hope is blowout earnings from AAPL! ;) MACD and RSI are both bullish; we're also making higher highs and higher lows over the last 7 weeks. I remain bullish but expect to see some near term pressure. That's what the Kool Aid says, anyway. :)
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Sticky Sentiment: Part Two
SPX
-20.43%
in
594 days
4/21 - "The AAII percentage of bulls fell to 30.4% this week from 45.8% the prior week. This reading is still at a depressed level. The AAII percentage of bears rose to 48.7% this week from 37.3% the prior week. This reading is still at an elevated level.
There is plenty of additional detail, including the 10-week averages that show the “sticky” behavior of this sentiment. The entire article is worth reading.
Gary adds additional information about other indicators. Here is the more comprehensive story:
Individual and professional investor pessimism towards US stocks remains deep-seated a...
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S&P 500
SPX
+0.18%
in
15 days
(closed on 04/22/08)
Still heading North. It feels like we're consolidating here, perhaps for the next move up. RSI is strong. I'd like to see a nice white candle to 1400 to confirm the move and pass our last two peaks. Until then, I'm staying long with about 30% in cash. Who knows, we could get another reversal. I have a limit order to sell Frontier Oil (FTO) at $28.50 (the first buy in) and got within .07c of it today. It has since retreated as crude has made yet another record. If the Fed raises rates again I predict we'll see crude at $120. Alcoa (AA) is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings of <><>55 cent...
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U.S. and Asia Still in for a Downturn
SPX
+20.16%
in
609 days
4/7 - "...the real economy is characterized by an excess supply of goods. That, in conjunction with rising import costs stemming from a lower dollar, means that many US firms are in for reduced turnover and reduced margins, ergo reduced profits. Thus, brace for dramatically lower earnings of some companies...The only ray of hope is the earnings of price-sensitive exporters who are beating their European competition on price in markets with good economic times, such as China or, increasingly, Taiwan...The other sector that could provide robust earnings is "service staples" such as health car...
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Investor Sentiment: Now's the Time to Be Bold
SPX
-16.12%
in
617 days
3/28 - "Investor sentiment is at its lowest since 1990 and second lowest since the American Association of Individual Investors [AAII] sentiment indicator began in 1987...Current low investor sentiment is significant because there were only six instances (excluding this one) when it was below -15%. And only two instances when it was below -20%."
"To the extent history repeats itself, the current risk/reward outlook of stock investing is heavily skewed toward rewards.
Warren Buffet put it best when he said: “Be greedy when others are fearful.“"
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Interpreting a Volatile Week
SPX
-18.57%
in
623 days
3/23 - "The most important factors are bullish...These elements took the market from a death watch -- everyone guessing who would be the next "Bear" -- to a situation where Punk Ziegel's, Richard Bove, called bank stocks the buying opportunity of a generation."
"Wednesday's trading, down nearly 300 in the DJIA, was the disturbing factor for the week...We agree that there was nothing in the Fed action to generate this reversal, nor the strength in the dollar. There was also broad selling in stocks thought to be part of general hedge fund portfolios."
"The ETF Sector approach got caught in...
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Four Reasons to Believe in the "Bear Stearns Bottom"
SPX
-18.57%
in
623 days
3/24 - "Last Monday, I wrote on my blog that I thought it was likely we had seen the lows. Still, I wanted to see how the market fared on Tuesday, so I held off submitting my column. I never thought Tuesday would see such a huge rally, but it just reinforces my view."
"The technicals often do a better job of highlighting bottoms, even though you never truly know without hindsight...if you look back at any major market bottom in financial history, you will see that bearish sentiment always hits extreme levels. I saw that last Monday."
"I heard a lot of people saying that Monday's action di...
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A Little More Understanding of Cycles
SPX
+18.47%
in
623 days
3/24 - "I have noted my belief that just about every aspect of of the way this market has rolled over into what looks like a bear market and the big picture catalysts that triggered it has been very textbook...In that light it is possible that it could continue to be textbook throughout the process and on into the eventual real upturn."
"Of course anything is possible. A bottom could be in, there might not be a recession and now could be the time to buy. I don’t think any of that is the case but it could be...This is the nature of feel good rallies. You wonder if this is the rally and ofte...
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The Fed's Latest Rate Cut: The Song Remains the Same
SPX
+17.11%
in
628 days
3/19 - "...my opinion on the rate cuts hasn’t changed since my first commentary on the matter in September...Ultimately this crisis about a bursting credit bubble, poor risk management and bad investment decisions, not high interest rates. Cutting rates may inject confidence, make people feel better or ease pains but it doesn’t solve the core problem...With respect to mortgage relief, the market has effectively ignored the previous rate cuts with respect to lowering mortgage rates."
"The Fed is ready to debase the dollar and cut interest rates all the way down to 1%, in order to hasten our...
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Fed in "Panic Prevention" Mode
SPX
+16.66%
in
635 days
From Merrill Lynch:
3/12/08 - "The Fed continues to react to events as they unfold, moving incrementally and targeting its actions towards bolstering liquidity in the financial system. This latest experiment, as with the others undertaken thus far, does not address underlying credit problems, does not materially improve the solvency of the institutions exposed to assets under stress, does nothing to put a floor under home prices, and we see no reason based on this for anyone to change their economic or earnings outlook despite the stock market’s initial reaction to this latest initiative."...
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